The Outbreak: A realistic timeline

Author: Angryvikingman
Submitted: 16 Dec 2010
Filed under: General &Safety &Uncategorized

44 Responses to “The Outbreak: A realistic timeline”

1. McLuvin on 16 Dec 2010 at 2:06 am #

   I think this is the reason, in most zombie movies, there is an accelerated incubation period. If given a few days or weeks to spot/contain/control an outbreak, the zompocalypse could be short lived. With a faster infection there would be no stopping it. I feel we would be much more likely to face “rage” type zeds so starvation and dehydration could be a big factor. Either way I’m hoarding ammo.

2. Ronin666 on 16 Dec 2010 at 3:50 am #

   Interesting break down Angry.
   I wonder if the rate would vary if the initial outbreak began somewhere else. Lets say Somalia. At first you’s tend to think, “We in the west would have plenty of time to prepare.” But then,given the low level of news coverage from somewhere like that , the low level of local government response it could in fact be spread by airlines very quickly across the planet with the same snowball effect simultaneously.
   I wonder how quickly an island nation such as Australia or New Zealand or even the US state of Hawaii would close their borders once the virus was confirmed. I know during Swine Flu all Australia did was spray the passengers on air craft and blood test any that looked ill, but then they thought/knew they could fight that disease.
   I’m with McLuvin on this, I’m still stockpiling ammo

3. M on 16 Dec 2010 at 9:19 am #

   This is a nice timeline and it makes a lot of sense. Although you cut out a ton of variables that could effect the progression of the virus and, in my personal opion, you underestimated how much the goverment would cover an outbreak like this up. By day 7 the infection probably wouldn’t have taken a city and any news coming out of the hot zone would be unconfirmed reports and hersay.

4. Angryvikingman on 16 Dec 2010 at 10:16 am #

   Yes, I did cut out a lot of the variables, but this is a straightforward by the numbers estimation of the spread of the virus. Trying to calculate if individual cities mounted significant defenses, or if the military nuked half the country or other such things would have really just made it a really boring and drawn out process. It only calculates a given amount of people turning every 2 days, and assumes that nothing could really be done to slow or stop the spread, which btw is how the CDC does it.

5. 3ID on 16 Dec 2010 at 12:00 pm #

   even with no variables 21 days and the world is tost i have to agree with McLuvin and Ronin666 and stock pile some ammo, but having 30+ days of food in a button up barrel would help a lot just so you dont have to go out side a brave the hordes of dead and dieing poeple. you also have to rebember that the internet will still be up till, hell maybe past Day 21, we could use this site to communicate ZAC followers are all over the world they could kepp the rest off use updated as to the events that are going on so we could be stock pile ammo and food while pepole on day 1 and 3 are still living there normal lifes we at ZAC would be making Walmart and Sams Club runs also buying out the local gun stores.

6. big bear29 on 16 Dec 2010 at 1:00 pm #

   @3ID

   The internet will only last as long as the power does . Most power stations will shut down after a day or two and the nuclear reactors will last at most two weeks before they have a melt down . The wind , solar and hydro electric power generating facilities provide an extremely small amount of power that may not even be reaching the servers or your home if some of the power lines are down .

   This doesn’t even take into account the amount of fires that will be started and will destroy buildings and entire cities which will wipe out the servers . So I wouldn’t be to concerned with the internet after the outbreak if I were you .

   I’m glad that I don’t live in the eastern half of the U.S. like some of you . Becuase when the nuclear reactors have a melt down you will have to deal with the zombies , raiders/maruaders and radioactive fallout , and that isn’t even taking into account the chemical plants that will be destroyed and leaking toxic gasses and liquids into the surruonding enviroment .

7. big bear29 on 16 Dec 2010 at 2:05 pm #

   @Angryvikingman

   I’m not trying to be an @$$ here but I think that you are being overly optimistic about how long it will take for this thing to spread and about how quickly the goverment will respond to it .

   Also the zombies won’t be constrained by a ten bite limit per day , I’m pretty sure that they will be beyond the point of caring if they have reached their ten-a-day limit , so even with the two to seven day incubation the virus will likely spread further and faster than you suggested .

   Around where I live the indiviuals and companies were responding to the outbreak of the h1n1 virus almost two weeks before the goverment even decided to admit it was even in the area . So I don’t hold out a lot of hope that they would respond quickly to a zombie outbreak unless they were the ones to cause it .

   Otherwise its a pretty good topic .

8. Angryvikingman on 16 Dec 2010 at 4:51 pm #

   I merely provided numbers based on the criteria that I set down in the second paragraph. I never said that it couldnt happen any other way, faster, slower, or with a higher rate of infection than 10 people per 2 days. I only provided numbers based on the factors included and made guestimates as to how fast the government and media would respond. Feel free to try and come up with your own time table and repost. I used set numbers for incubation and number of new infected every 2 days. Of course in real life there are too many factors to take into consideration to provide an accurate model as to how the infection would spread. Say it was 10 people every 2 hours, then the numbers would be the same, except instead of 21 days, it would take 21 hours, but then again, unless zombies can drive after they turn, then they still have to walk or run everywhere, and I doubt that their prey would sit still to get bitten. Skew the math how you want, its still a realistic timeline given travel involved, distances covered, and the fact that the zombies could be killed resulting in lower rates of infection thus slowing the spread and keeping my timeline accurate. For every factor that you point to that would speed the timeline, I could point to one to slow it back down. I was just shooting for a happy medium.

9. Semper Cogitant on 16 Dec 2010 at 5:31 pm #

   There is of course no way to state decisively what the incubation period would be. A couple days may not be a bad guess. Incubation of disease commonly falls into the period you mention, but there are examples ranging from several hours to to several weeks. To add to the complexity we can;t really say how easy it is to transmit.

   I think several sources give period of like six hours from bit to turning, but of course we can’t know that.

   I think the initial stages of the outbreak might go faster, especially the first couple days. People wouldn’t know what they were dealing with and it would be easy for the earlier zombies to infect more. An example might be as follows.

   Patient zero might be among friends or in a public place, he would appear ill, but no one would be expecting him to go berserk. He starts attacking, bites and scratches several before he is subdued. Since he’s unarmed an no one is thinking “zombie” he likely wouldn’t be killed. Several are infected at this point.

   So a few concerned citizen finally have him pinned or cornered. The police are summoned and more violence again ensues. But again deadly force would probably not be used. It’s very likely that a few officers would be bitten. The police don’t know what’s wrong, to they summon EMS, the zombie is taken to the local emergency room in restraints and spit mask.

   In the emergency room it’s very possible that more people are infected. This first zombie is likely to infect a dozen or more.

   That night or the next day there are a dozen or so around and here it gets ugly. Before turning there are obviously symptoms. These dozen people are sick and have the exposure to the zombie to associate that with. Likely they all go to the hospital, possibly to different hospitals. Here they will all die in short order. No one is hospitals is careful about what dead people do. They would very quickly be able to bite a lot of people, causing hundreds of zombies to flow out of the hospital over the next day.

   At this point things might slow down. The media has been involved from the first few hours and there is mass panic now. No one lets anyone who looks sick near them and there is probably a lot of violence.

   I imagine most infections would stop at this point, but one thing could easily make it continue. If some of the first few victims traveled before before getting too sick. The outbreak could easily spread from that print but in each area I think it would slow down after the first few days.

   Of course this is all nothing more than a wild ass guess, and my wild ass guess is no better than anyone else’s.

   Angry’s numbers are pretty reasonable, but I don’t think it’d be a linear progression. It would o faster in the beginning and slower later on. OF course I could have it completely backwards.

   Also, it would depend on where the initial outbreak was. If it happens in a densely populated city (there are a couple dozen cities with over 10,000 people per square mile) things could go a lot faster. Couple density with poverty and it gets uglier. In Mumbai, Lagos or Karachi there could be a few million zombies with a week.

   On the other hand if patient zero happened in a place like Marathon, Texas (to pick a small, well armed town out of a hat), we’d likely never even hear about it.

10. big bear29 on 16 Dec 2010 at 7:49 pm #

    I don’t know . There are a lot of people out there that lack that killer instinct , these people wouldn’t take another life even to save their own . Thats why there is such a big market for things like stun guns and mace . They would rather hurt their attacker just enough to escape or to drive the attacker away , most people wouldn’t just pickup a gun and go head hunting at the first sign of violence , some would most wouldn’t . I figure it would be almost a week before most people would resort to killing to survive .

11. specially equipped guardsman on 16 Dec 2010 at 10:28 pm #

    Yea. new posts fro Christmas.

    Here’s a time line I worked up for the walking dead.

    Z-120: CDC identifies a new virus, it appears benign but spreads rapidly. code named WILDFIRE.

    Z-3: Rick Grimes shot in the line of duty (pulling this out of my butt, its not based on anything stated in the show or comic)

    Z-2: Rick is placed in medically induced coma.

    Z-day: THE DEAD WALK! Infection among First responders runs 10%, 2% among the general population, they have no idea what they are dealing with. CDC begins to try and ID the vector.

    Z+1: Police call in all off duty personal. Outbreaks are isolated and small. Most are contained. Infection among first responders runs 15%, 8% among the GP(cumulative). They’re being more careful. ICUs and holding cells are overwhelmed with the infected. CDC confirms the infected are dead.

    Z+2: Casualties among first responders runs 17%, 12% among the GP(cumulative). Wide spread looting and civil disturbances. the police cannot cope with both living and the dead. National Guard activated in 20 States. The active Military places its Bases under Quarantine and prepares for domestic deployment. Homeland Security recommends “putting down” the infected.

    Z+3: National State of Emergency declared. Casualties among first responders runs 22%, 15% among the GP(cumulative). At this point Many Police, Fire and Rescue squads are no longer able to function as first responders and withdrawal from first line service. All National Guard Units ordered to Federal Service, Guard Units report 80% strength. CDC confirms the link to WILDFIRE. Many areas of major cities become NO-GO zones. The economy begins breaking down. Overwhelmed Hospital staff begin keeping patients like Rick under sedation if they cannot be released.

    Z+4: Casualties among first responders runs 23%, 20% among the GP 5% amongst Guard units(cumulative). Shooting walkers and looters on sight becomes Standard Operating Procedure. Some NO-GO areas reopened. Army and Marines begin search and destroy operations in the areas around their bases, reopening lines of communication and securing critical infrastructure. Additional Reserve Units mobilized, 70% show up.

    Z+8: Casualties among first responders runs 25%, 25% among the GP 15% amongst Guard units, 5% among active units(cumulative). NYC, LA, San Diego, Chicago declared NO-GO zones. Active Units begin moving into major cities. Two Heavy brigades ordered to secure and clear Atlanta.

    Z+12: Casualties among first responders runs 28%, 30% among the GP 20% amongst Guard units, 10% among active units(cumulative) reinforcements from Reserves begin to bring military units back up to strength. Atlanta Declared secure.

    Z+13: Casualties among first responders runs 30%, 35% among the GP 22% amongst Guard units, 15% among active units(cumulative)San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland NO-GO zones. Police and National Guard resume control of Atlanta. Army units redeploy from Atlanta to other zones.

    Z+18: Casualties among first responders runs 33%, 40% among the GP 25% amongst Guard units, 18% among active units(cumulative). San Diego declared secure. 1st Marine Division and the remains of California National Guard establish Pendleton pocket to keep LA infestation from moving south and Baja infestation from moving North. NYC secure but under siege, The bulk of 82nd Airborne and 2nd Marine Division committed to its defense. Baltimore declared NO-GO zone. Federal government evacuates DC to Continuity of Government Bunkers. Refugees flood into Atlanta. Caretaker staff at hospital keeps Rick alive and sedated as his wounds heal. Production of essential supplies grinds to a halt

    Z+28: Casualties among first responders runs 40%, 50% among the GP 35% amongst Guard units, 25% among active units(cumulative). Chicago secured but 101st Airborne Division rendered incapable of further offensive operations in the effort. Population of Atlanta swells to twice its pre-Z levels. Secondary infections begin spreading in cleared zones. Critical infrastructure begins failing. Resupply of units in the field becomes problematic. Some forward units no longer responding to orders.

    Z+40: Casualties 60% among the GP, first responders and Guard units no longer responsive or absorbed into Regular units, loses 35% among active units(cumulative). Military begins withdrawing to their own base where possible. Infrastructure in near complete collapse. CDC begins to move out of Atlanta.

    Z+53: Casualties among the GP unknown, loses among regular units still responding 50%. Ricks caretakers killed or flee their posts.

    Z+54: Rick wakes up.

12. Clifford "Ozzie" Nicolen on 17 Dec 2010 at 6:38 pm #

    I don’t quite think that most people wouldn’t immediatley start thinking “HOLY FREAKIN BALLS A ZOMBIE” when well, a zombie was walking or running around chewing on people.

    Most young’ns like me have probably seen a zombie movie and know the signs. Sure, they would probably do something stupid they saw on Left 4 Dead but they still could identify one and hopefully run away.

    All it takes is one rich nerd to get a bunch of people saved in his missle silo.

    (Dear God, let me win the Lottery!!)

13. big bear29 on 21 Dec 2010 at 11:50 am #

    If you want to have a good laugh at the stupidity of others check out http://www.darwinawards.com
    Their motto is ” Honoring those who improve the species…by
    accidentally removing themselves from it! “

14. Clifford "Ozzie" Nicolen on 23 Dec 2010 at 12:48 am #

    Big Bear, Was that your story about the guy who head-butted the coconuts?

15. big bear29 on 23 Dec 2010 at 12:10 pm #

    Nope , but I still laughed at it .

16. Semper Cogitant on 24 Dec 2010 at 1:54 am #

    @ Ozzie – Even old farts like me know what zombies are, they’ve been making modern zombie movies – the kind where walking dead bite and infect you so you become a zombie – since 1968 (When I was barely out of diapers). Before Romero I don’t think zombies infected people by biting, but the first zombie movies were silent pictures. The zombie genre has been popular in movies for almost a century, and it was the generation before me that invented the modern zombie movie. Even the old farts will recognize zombies.

17. big bear29 on 24 Dec 2010 at 1:08 pm #

    A lot of people might just think its a crazy person or somebody on a really bad drug trip at first . Some people would stand around taking pictures with their cell phones or just stand around and watch the attack happen or they might jump in and try and stop the attack and likely get bitten themselves . Very few people would yell ” HOLY CRAP ITS A ZOMBIE ” and draw their gun and shoot the attacker .

18. Elder on 13 Jan 2011 at 11:38 pm #

    Well the results will vary dramatically based i
    On whether or not the infection is an engineered super virus or if its a mutation of a normal virus like rabies. Also are the zombies trying to eat you thus rendering the body un-re-animateable or are they biting to infect

19. wheelgunner on 23 Jan 2011 at 4:33 pm #

    Do you think that you could smear zombie blood onto a dart and use it to infect somebody?

20. Angryvikingman on 23 Jan 2011 at 6:18 pm #

    Probably, and a very ingetesting idea. Disturbing, but interesting. By the same token, perhaps hollow points filled with zombie blood would do the same thing and work from a much greater distance.

21. wheelgunner on 23 Jan 2011 at 11:38 pm #

    I had a discussion with some buddies about that a while back. I’m of the opinion that a GOOD laquer would be required, but the theory is sound.

    In case you can’t guess, this is an assassinate the bandit question.

22. big bear29 on 25 Jan 2011 at 4:59 pm #

    Put the blood into a hollow point then pour some hot wax on top of the bullet to act as a cap , make sure to wipe off any excess wax . Now when the bullet goes in the wax will be blown away from having been fired and entering the body . The person should be infected . This would be a good way to take out a bunch of hostiles inside a fortified structure . Also you might be able to do this with a tracer round , but you would probably have to have some kind of cap over the end to keep the blood from getting incenerated when the bullet is fired . Perhaps a plastic or metal disc on the end of the bullet that would be torn off when the bullet exits the barrel .

    It would probably be easier to just get tranqualizer rounds and use them and its not like people would be going for the tranq guns when the outbreak happens so they will likely be laying around at places that would normally have them . Animal control , zoos , vet clinics and fish and wildlife departments .

23. wheelgunner on 26 Jan 2011 at 1:10 pm #

    I was thinking that the wax would melt of in the barrel. Tranq gun might not be bad, but you would probably need an anticonagulant to inject the blood with.

24. big bear29 on 26 Jan 2011 at 3:29 pm #

    If you are shooting repeatadly with the same gun the wax will melt if it gets hot enough .

    Heparin is a strong, fast-acting anticoagulant . This stuff is supposed to act within a few minutes .

25. hell hound on 20 Feb 2011 at 2:11 pm #

    aaaaaaaaaaaa run its a zombie

26. big bear29 on 25 Feb 2011 at 3:36 pm #

    @wheelgunner
    In the past when some armies would lay siege to an enemy castle or fort they would load the corpses of the dead on to catapaults and launch them over the walls to act as a form of psychological warfare . Having the corpses of their dead allies falling from the sky would scare the crap out of anybody .

    If you were attacking a raider base that has a wall to aid in defense you could setup a catapault or trebuchet and launch zombies over the wall and into their base to take out the raiders from the inside . You would have to take out any sentries to prevent them from sounding an alarm first though . But getting the zombies and loading them for launching would be very difficult to pull off .

27. TheCheese on 28 Feb 2011 at 4:35 pm #

    How do you get an account on this site?

28. TheCheese on 28 Feb 2011 at 9:07 pm #

    Never mind.

29. big bear29 on 09 Mar 2011 at 6:00 pm #

    That paper tries to apply to much logic to the outbreak and not enough reality . When a zombie outbreak occurs the people that panic or refuse to accept the situation are the ones to get infected the quickest as well as the old , sick and the abandoned . But there are some people that would not only survive but actually thrive in an apocalyptic scenario . These would be the people to setup safe zones or fortified cities and they would likely protect them with a ruthlessness that would frighten most modern people that have led a sheltered life . There are so many factors that I could point out that I could fill up an entire page but I won’t , because that would just take to long .

30. Connor Rose on 08 Apr 2011 at 12:05 pm #

    Very good but you are not factoring in us fighting back. Quickly we will see they need to be killed even if we dont know what the are the war would last 3-5 years depending on resistense level

31. big bear29 on 08 Apr 2011 at 7:31 pm #

    @Connor Rose
    Nobody can accurately say how long it will take to win a war against zombies , if its winnable at all . It all comes down to how the disease is spread , how long the incubation period is , what type of zombie we are dealing with and how widespread the outbreak is at the beginning .

32. syn on 02 May 2011 at 12:40 pm #

    i would have to say if any thing people should probly start to form some type of smaller version of army for their own protection. id say an army of about 10 to 15 people and try to stay in a highly secured builing with people always on watch even at night time so that if any thing the other people will know some thing is coming their way and will be prepared. their should be 5 squads though including: 3 snipers also equipped with tons of ammo and grenades, 3 people with auto matics for instance like an ak74u and have them also with extra ammo and grenades, a third squad of 3 (strong people) with the shot guns w/lots of ammo and grenades, a fourth squad of 3 with a amped up vehicle putting into consideration there might not be any police nor soldiers,and the fifth squad of 3 using semi automatics w/extra ammo and grenades.

33. That's Right on 03 May 2011 at 2:56 pm #

    You guys are mental… if in 21 days the whole earth will be run over by zombies, whats the point of defending yourself? just go into your closet and kill yourself. there is no way you will be the lucky 1 person to survive, if there are billions of zombies, how are you going to survive? you will be over run in a matter of minutes if you even open the front door.

34. Angryvikingman on 03 May 2011 at 5:20 pm #

    Depending on where you live, and population density, you could likely survive for a long period of time, maybe even years. I live in the country, and subsistance farming would be pretty easy. After a while, humanity could make a come back. Especially if zombies decay, or become dehydrated. Because after 3 months with no water but what they find in the blood of humans, zombies will have died out due to lack of water or putrifaction.

35. Amber on 20 May 2011 at 2:11 pm #

    First of all i think that this all bull. If you wanna survive zombies you must stand your ground and fight. I also do’nt believe in this stay in the house well be safer crap. Zombies can break into your homes. Zombies well never starve or dehydrate because they’re already dead. You need to destory the main function of a zombie, the brain. That’s the only thing that keep’s them alive. I’m sorry if I’m rude but I speak the truth.

36. Izzat on 25 May 2011 at 10:09 am #

    Hm.. interesting subject there.

    I have even read all the comment.

    amber says ;

    First of all i think that this all bull. If you wanna survive zombies you must stand your ground and fight. I also don’t believe in this stay in the house well be safer crap. Zombies can break into your homes. Zombies well never starve or dehydrate because they’re already dead. You need to destroy the main function of a zombie, the brain. That’s the only thing that keep’s them alive. I’m sorry if I’m rude but I speak the truth.

    For me;

    Amber is wrong, u say they cannot be dehydrate? of course they can. Bacterias, crows, maggots ate their body in the mean time. You can see dead human being killed after 7 days, they are eaten by maggots. Fight? It’s a futile effort, you loses stamina and their does not. and oh yea, I wonder when they dehydrate, they will become skeletons which chases people? This is what intrigues me. Anyways, zombie will rot as time goes by, even you said that Amber, they are dead. Deads will be consumed by consumer such as maggots bacterias, learn science and human body physics.

37. Non-retarded Realist on 05 Jun 2011 at 7:05 am #

    First off, you’re all wrong.
    @ Syn, you’re the worst, where do you suppose a group of 15 civilians could purchase military grade armaments, and provide a super secure base? How will you feed these people?

    You all clearly are city folk. I am not. If the zompocalypse happens I will be heading to the hills in my lovely home of Alaska. All of you ignorant fools can spend your money buying guns (of which I doubt any of you would know how to use properly, never the less maintain) and ammo. I, on the other hand, am already equipped with the basic essentials any outdoor saavy person would need to survive in the wilderness for months.

    Guns aren’t the answer, the machete and or the hatchet are. Cavemen could use these weapons, which also serve as tools. Also, a machete could easily severe human head, and a hatchet can simply mash their brains in one whack.

    As for food? Scavenging in the land of the dead is how you end up like the masses, dead. I say stay away from towns, travel with a modest company of friends and or family.

    As for the zombie type, a slow Romero style zombie is impossible. But lets say for your fat geeky sakes that they are slow, they will inevitably run out of fuel to do anything, they will dehydrate leaving muscles inoperable, their bodies would consume all fuel, including anything needed to move. Zombies in dry, temperate climates would live the longest, though never longer than two weeks tops. (Implying they are some sort of miracle Z virus)

    There exist no such virus that resembles the Z virus more than rabies. Rabies victims that have hit the stages of mortality have just begun to show symptoms. In the second stage of symptoms, victims would exhibit irrational behavior, which includes violent tendencies, and also HYDROPHOBIA AND THE INABILITY TO SWALLOW.

    28 Days Later zombies are the only ones I would deem possible, unless of course the Z virus defies biological law, or barring some sort of Universe wide plague that came from the stars.

38. Angryvikingman on 05 Jun 2011 at 10:03 am #

    @Non-Retarded

    Evidently you haven’t read any of the other articles on here. There are several of us who are competition shooters, and former military. We know how to use weapons in ways that you most likely don’t, and yes, we know how to maintain them. If I can teach my 7 year old how to strip, clean, and reassemble a pistol, then I submit that any idiot can be taught. (hes 9 now) I don’t live in the city, I was born and raisd in rural TN, and still live there. I spent about 6 years living in a city, and it sucked, so I got back out to the sticks. Aside from that, there are those of us on here who know how to survive in the wilderness as well. Maybe not months and months in Alaska, but in our own respective climates, yes, we can. Maybe you should read the article a little closer, then read more articles, and see who the regular posters are and you’ll see that some of us know our shit.

39. Ways the World is Using the Impending Zombie Apocalypse to Teach Humanity Lessons — Our Top Ten | REV 96.7 – St. Cloud’s Rock Radio on 24 Oct 2011 at 3:33 pm #

    [...] this is from “Zombies are Coming“, an “all things zombie” website, but it does use infection and disease [...]

40. Kspence on 15 Nov 2011 at 7:06 pm #

    In the event of a zombie outbreak, i doubt the entire world would be consoumed in 3 weeks. It would take months to spread so far, depending of course on virus incubation period and speed of government responses.

    Assuming the UN or national governments didnt become aware of the extent of the danger or nature of the virus within the first few days, its possible the virus will have spread to dozens of countries via air and sea travel and overland travel across borders. These cases will be taken to hospital in the respective countries, begining outbreaks in said hospitals. Within 2 weeks of an outbreak in the US, imo, there will be outbreaks in Canada, Mexico, Western Europe and Japan, possibly Iraq and afghanistan if infected US soldiers are deployed before the virus takes them over.

    Within a month, major outbreaks will be occuring in the cities where the original cases were taken. Cases will be at least over 1,000 worldwide and the World Health Organisation will be becoming aware.

    By week 6, panic and looting will likely be occuring in many American cities, even in places where no outbreak has occured yet. The Federal government will begin recalling troops from abroad and calling up reservists, and some national guard deployments will occur in infected cities to support beleagured police.

    As week 8 begins, the W.H.O. has declared a worldwide pandemic as cases number in the thousands in over a dozen countries. Thousands are dead in the U.S. as well as some European, Japanese and South Korean cities. Regular army units are mobalised and begin deploying roadblocks around infected cities. President and his cabinet are evacuated from Washington as the city is inundated with infected.

    Week 9 see’s social order decay in most American cities, as well as much of Canada and Mexico as American refugees carry the virus across the borders.

    Much of Europe, particularly places such as Paris, Berlin, Rome, Madrid, Warsaw, Kiev and Athens are falling into chaos as infected overrun them.

    Britain, which has quarantined itself from the rest of the world saving it from the infection by shooting refugees trying to cross the Channel, is suffering from economic collapse and chronic food and fuel shortages. Daily protests and riots occur against the emergency coalition government over food coupon prices and the state of emergency that had been imposed in urban areas.

    By week 12 , Japan has been totally overrun and millions are dead, South Korea is in chaos, as is other newly infected Asian countries such as India, China and Vietnam, with their massive populations. The streets of cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hanoi, Mumbai run with the blood of terrified citizens. Outbreaks occur in parts of Africa and South America also.

    Much of the US is in a state of chaos, as Federal government begins to fall apart. US army units begin to desert to be with their familys and Texas secceeds from the Union and seals its borders.

    By week 14, chaos reigns in South American cities, and much of northern Africa, as well as south Africa fall into chaos as outbreak occur within their own borders and wars ignite over resources as aid from western countries dies up. Israel wipes out Iran and Syria with nuclear bombs whilst fighting a land war with Jordan and Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Hamas in Gaza.

    Within 20 weeks out of the outbreak, society has been eradicated in much of the world. Island nations fared better, being able to stem the flow of infected refugees and zombie hoards. Britain and Ireland survived the plague, although Britian fell into civil war as Scotland declared independence and socialist rebels took over northern England and Wales, whilst the Conservatives forces remained in control of London and the south, begining a bitter war that would claim 180,000 lives before it ended when London was overrun with the rebels.

    The global death toll had reached 5.8 billion by the point a vaccine was created two years after the outbreak.

41. Oldefarte on 29 Nov 2011 at 11:09 pm #

    Numerous commentators have likened zombies to “anthropomorphized viruses” and it’s certainly fair to do so. From there it is reasonable to postulate a virally based zombie “plague” (indeed, there are extant and known viruses which, at certain stages, seem to provoke almost zombie-like behaviors). Therefore, it is likely that any “zombie apocalypse” would spread in the manner that most viruses spread.

    The problem is that there are numerous viruses with multiple modes of transmission, incubation times, and varying levels (and kinds) of symptomatology and lethality. In many ways, “zombie-ism”, as popularly depicted, resembles viruses like rabies or the various retroviruses (Ebola, Marburg, etc.), being spread by contact with bodily fluids and, if “The Walking Dead” is any measure, having an accelerated and near total lethality rate, with minimal incubation time. Ordinarily, that would create a very self-limited, easily contained outbreak (similar to Ebola, which usually kills off its victims before they can spread it very far), save that zombies remain active and infective POST-death. Nonetheless, the near instantaneous transition from bite victim to zombie means that the potential for a “stealth” transmission is highly improbable and, after an initial infective “surge” or two, it’s likely the outbreak would be rapidly and fully contained.

    Change one fact (keep the lethality, the general effect, the bodily fluid transmission method, etc.), namely the incubation and infective period, and you have an entirely different scenario. In this case, the infection incubates either silently or with minimal symptoms for multiple days, maybe even weeks, during the latter part of which the person becomes unwittingly infectious. In such a case, modern transportation, huge human concentrations, and dysfunctional health care system, would guarantee that the infection would be extremely widespread before anyone realized that there was an epidemic ongoing. Any city would certainly be seriously compromised before anything could be done (indeed, before the need to do something was even apparent) and only relatively rural and isolated venues would escape the initial surge of infection. Those areas might form enclaves from which humanity could fight back, but it is likely that humanity would be so outnumbered by the infected that the outcome would be problematical.

    IF you then add airborne transmission to the mix, you have a near perfect disaster and it is impossible to conceive humanity surviving the plague. Indeed, even with near immediate lethality (eliminating the potential for unwitting and/or surreptitious spreading of the disease), any airborne plague would be extremely difficult to contain, tho’ it might be if governments and health systems are quick to recognize the issue and to respond. However, it is all too easy to conceive a “SARS”/”Avian Flu” scenario in which a country experiencing the outbreak (such as China in those two cases, as well as with “Blue Eared Pig Syndrome”) would attempt to hide that fact so as not to risk trade disruptions. That the world dodged those two bullets is purely fortuitous and a similar response by China to a “zombie-SARS” outbreak would probably spell the doom of humanity, particularly as a great many countries (the USA included) are now so indebted to China that it is not certain that they would take adequate quarantine measures even if they were apprised of the potential disaster.

42. Oldefarte on 30 Nov 2011 at 12:58 am #

    Having now read all the postings, I must say that “Semper Cogitant” (Msg. #9) and “Big Bear” (Msg. #17) make a point much overlooked, namely that, during the initial stages of any outbreak, it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to be thinking “Crap, my friend just turned into a zombie…” They’ll treat it as tho’ he just momentarily went off his nut, drop him off at some ER and then they’ll toss some hydrogen peroxide or maybe some anti-biotic ointment on their bites and scratches and sally forth to go home and…, oh, my, start biting their friends, neighbors and casual passerbyes, who are going to be just as ignorant of the real danger and consequences until they, too, have turned and shared their “gift” with dozens of others. Within hours, a single, infected individual will have turned into hundreds of infected persons, with ever growing and widening foci of infection, preying on more and more unwitting victims who haven’t a clue why their waitress came in from her smoke break and started biting them and the other customers…

    Then consider how many unwitting caregivers at the receiving hospital will have sustained bites and scratches in the process of ministering to and restraining “Patient Zero” and how many hapless patients they will have infected before some percipient medico figures out that, “holy moly, these people are turning into freakin’ zombies”. Now, imagine yourself, as the aforesaid percipient medico, locked into a supply closet of a hospital suddenly crawling with zombies, amidst the screams of hundreds of patients under attack, and you’re gonna call 911 and try to convince the officious bureaucrat on the other end that St. Luke’s Hospital is crawling with hordes of the ravenous undead. Good luck.

    It’s easy to see how virtually an entire city could be lost before anyone fully appreciated what, exactly, was happening and the word went out. Still, the outbreak could probably be contained (and any outliers rounded up ere they spread the infection very far), but the initial outbreak could easily result in millions of lives lost (from the zombie attacks or from the countermeasures employed against them, in a densely populated city, where the living and the undead are inextricably intermixed). However, if there were more than one “Patient Zero” in more than one city, the situation could well lurch past the tipping point before anyone appreciated the danger, let alone ordered meaningful countermeasures. Similarly, if relief were delayed as long as it was in the case of Hurricane Katrina (and, let’s face it, nobody was skeptical about a hurricane having hit New Orleans, but replace “hurricane” with “zombie apocalypse” and imagine the likely reception you’re gonna get from the authorities), the disaster could be huge before anyone realized there was a disaster brewing.

    It took at least 4 years for people to even begin to suspect that the “fag cancer” showing up in San Francisco was a harbinger of a new and lethal virus (HIV) – and HIV is a relatively fragile virus and not so easy of transmission as most folks tend to think. Even a relatively fractional delay in appreciating the nature and potential of the “zombie virus” could be utterly fatal. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

43. Modemus on 02 Jun 2012 at 11:03 pm #

    Then I pose this question: If this face-eating incident in Miami last satuw is a case of Patient 0 and Patient 1, then what is a reasonable timeline for the infection to spread to lower Canada? Say Alberta and BC.

44. TOnyB on 16 Oct 2012 at 8:57 am #

    In The Walking Dead for example, “Wildfire” was so severe because infection was caused by unknown virus and started on several places one same day.. so there was a lot of “Patient Zeros”.
    Also anybody, who would die for any reason become a walker, so even if you contained intial outbreak, then if anywhere in the world someone died, you have a new walker.
    I imagine this as some trigger in DNA, which was pulled on purpose maybe? at this point with these “zombie creation rules”, you can’t contain it.

Trackback URL | Comments RSS

Leave a Reply